January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. Im not even sure what direction were going.. I quit voting once out of the union.. Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. This includes personalizing content and advertising. You have to take the lesser of two evils. Although longtime county residents say that Wood County is in pretty good shape overallas there has been some recent industrial development on its north sideit also has been affected by national issues such as inflation, the price of gasoline, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages. Weve never done that before.. The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . Michael Sakal is a former reporter for The Epoch Times. Recently, the company needed to find a part for one of its trucks, and it actually located the only part available in the United States and was able to get it. He likes how the Democratic Party helps lower-income people. There is nothing we can do about it; the power is out of our hands.. Hes happy about the passage of the First Step Act, criminal justice reform that Trump signed into law in 2018, which includes decreased sentences for some drug crimes, and also makes it easier to get out of prison early for good behavior. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. In new research, Bernard Grofman and Haotian Chen argue that the evidence shows that this claim is laughable. Over the same time period, Democrat registrations have dipped from 9,526 to 7,576. Where there used to be eight auto plants in Wayne County now there is only one, the GMC Truck plant, he said. Your email address will not be published. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain. The 2012 outcome seemed to be the beginning of a more robust shift to the right for the countywhile the state reelected Obama, Elk County had already moved on. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. County residents had voted for the presidential candidate who won the White House for nearly 60 years, since Democrat Lyndon Johnson won in 1964, according to the Ottawa County Board of Elections. She registered as a Democrat about 40 years ago and has never bothered to change her affiliation, although she voted for Trump in 2016 and plans to do the same this year. Median household incomes range from $65,000 in Bremer County, Iowa, to $32,000 in Hidalgo County, New Mexico. He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate. Its going to cause stealing, probably more riots, and all that., Weve had flu around forever, different strains of it. In 2016, he definitely was the lesser of two evils, Zulch said. When he became a Christian, he struggled with his unions blind support for Democratic candidates, most of whom arent pro-life, he said. Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. And the thing is, when they have these laws now that they arent enforcing, what good is another law going to be? There were lines of boaters with banners and flagsthere mustve been about 2,000 boats full of people participating, Tammy added. I tend to vote my morals, Myers told The Epoch Times. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. When Republican Dr. Ted Bowlus defeated Democrat Joel Kuhlman in the 2016 election, it completed a single-party commission. RIDGWAY, Pa.Tucked into a wooded valley in north-central Pennsylvania is the bellwether borough of Ridgway, the county seat . Bellwethers must make correct predictions regardless of which party wins election, but polarization makes it increasingly likely that counties will split into ones that vote regularly for a Republican or for a Democratic presidential nominee. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Her husband, a groundskeeper at an Army Reserve base, comes from a strongly Democratic family. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. Hes feeding people, instead of beating them up, to get stuff accomplished. Greg Abbott of Texas as a possible presidential candidate. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. . That streak ended in 2020 when voters cast the highest percentage of ballots for Republican Donald Trump14,628 (60.83 percent) to Democrat Joe Bidens 9,008 (37.46 percent). This belief in the efficacy of small numbers is probably strengthened by the fact that a random sample of only 2,000 or so voters is considered by statisticians large enough to predict election results in an electorate of well 140 million or so at least if the sample is truly random and the respondents are not lying either about their preferences or the likelihood that they will vote in the election. For Brendon, another resident of Riley who declined to disclose his last name, his spiritual belief will lead him not to vote at all this year. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Trump is a person who just couldnt accept defeat, Ellithorpe said. We need creative leadership, Miller said. The economy and good-paying jobs always have been an issue up here.. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. Robert Ellithorpe, an 84-year-old great grandfather, and Navy aviation veteran said he believed the 2020 presidential election was legitimate and Biden received 80 million votes. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Farming also is a big part of Wood County's make up in northwest Ohio. Theyre scared. Its a county where the residents are proud of its powdered metal factories and where the Ford F-Series is as ubiquitous as the American flag. The simple answer is that chance effects can be much greater than most people realize. It also has a failing manufacturing sector with once Democratic-leaning union workers who may have found Trumps America First message appealing in recent years. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. Every time you pass a law, the government becomes more oppressive. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. The last time Ottawa County deviated from its winning choice for president was in 1960 when the county supported Republican Richard Nixon, but Democrat John F. Kennedy won. Even Heidi Mackey, the clerk inside the station who said she hasnt voted since 2018, said shell likely vote in the May 3 primary. Only 1 of 17 bellwether counties went for Biden this year! We just couldnt believe that Trump had lost.. The morale of the people up there is bad. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. In the northwest corner of Ohio sits a county with an enviable bellwether reputationonly twice over the past 60 years voting against the presidential winner. But, he said, most mainstream politicians dont represent rural America, and issues such as boys that identify as girls and then compete in girls high school sports just smack of stupid., The economy and taxes are important issues to him, but the question he asks of the candidate is, Does this person care about my family?. Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. We have become so divided. One major planned project in Wood County pulled outPeloton, an exercise bike and interactive exercise equipment manufacturer. He also drives more than 40 miles from Marblehead to Wellington to pick up his truck. Elk Countys approximately 15,000 residents that go to the polls have voted for the eventual winner in all but three presidential elections since 1932in 1940, 1968, and 2012. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. Its just stupid, she said. Even wearing a mask, youre still not certain. It will cycle through. A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. Its home to four universities, filled with many Democratic-leaning students. July 4, 2022 bellwether counties epoch timesdid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independencedid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independence Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. One such claim is that Trumps victories in 2020 in the vast bulk of the counties that had previously been labeled as bellwethers proved that Trump really won the election and was denied the victory because of fraud. At least Biden is honest, he said. 2020: Trump - 54.12%, Biden - 45.20%. Only one, Clallam County in Washington, went for former Vice President Joe Biden and only by about a three-point margin. If I look back on my life, there is a swing toward the right, and then it swings back toward the left. While the Royal Drive In has been in the family for 60 years and serves a steady stream of local regulars, Martin says she wont recover until at least next summer, when she can get an extra boost, especially from traveling Canadiansas long as the border is open. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. For example, if we call a county a bellwether if it has one less correct match than the number of elections in a sequence, we will get nearly 19 bellwethers even in a set of eleven elections, and in a set of seven elections, we will see 197 bellwethers far more than the 27 we would find under our assumptions when we require a bellwether to have an unblemished record of predictive success. A lot of people think things are. . Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. Vance. Missouri fits this definition, as do six counties that have matched the national vote. Former President Trump and his supporters continue to loudly assert that he really won the 2020 election even though all the alleged direct evidence of fraud has not passed the sniff test of local courts, including those with Republican judges. No one who spoke to The Epoch Times had anything positive to say about Wolfs continued shutdowns in the state. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. Four City Technologies makes the lock-tight coatings on the threads of the components. His message to Trump is: Shut up and quit twittering. But theyre happy with that and theyre proud of what they created. But, just within the last year, the price of everything has gone up. He pissed off a lot of people. Republican Gov. Bellwethers arent a crystal balltheir streak was expected to end sooner or later. The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Weve always had a mix of voters, Baumgardner added. As a father, I would be curious about what my kids are doing.. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. The expansion for First Solar was made possible by changes in the U.S. Corporate Tax Policy during the Trump administration. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Whether you respect the man or not, he is still the president of the United States and you should respect that.. Edie Martin is struggling to get her diner back in the black after being closed for almost three months over the pandemic. He says Democratic Gov. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. Here's why. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a. of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. Because of the current situation, I have to look at our finances and say, Can I get this new truck, can I hire these two to three new employees, can we go into this new line of business? Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. More importantly, someone needs to be in office who understands that running the country is like running a business, said Hawker, who worked as a staff engineer for Bendix Braking Systems in Elyria for 52 years. Supreme Court nominees also matter a lot to Myers in this election. Epoch Times, Gateway Pundit, and EveryLegalVote.com show a different electoral vote count for two reasons: They exclude states with pending litigation or recounts, subtracting votes from. . In 2020, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. I have not seen any division like this [before]., I believe that is because of our current president, so my main issue is that he does not stay president.. In a video posted to Twitter on Thursday, Trump 2020 Campaign Senior Advisor for Strategy Steve Cortes took a deep dive into the 2020 election data regarding President Donald Trump's overwhelmingly dominant performance in the United States' bellwether counties, adding to the statistical improbability of a Joe Biden electoral victory. A state is considered a "bellwether state" if it usually . Port Clinton, Ohio. Will Ohios Wood County Continue to Be a Reliable Bellwether Indicator? The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout 87 percent, compared to 76 percent nationally, according to census data. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000. Were going to shift from a materialistic world to a more conscious and spiritual world, he said. Im not happy with either party. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. By Cara Ding. There is another bellwether list of 58 counties that has correctly picked each president since 2000; Trump won 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. Hawker told The Epoch Times he voted for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, and if he wouldve been re-elected, the country wouldnt be facing the problems they are having now. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. In an October 7, 2020, essay in the New York Times, David Wasserman looked to ten allegedly bellwether counties for evidence that Donald Trump is in serious trouble. Its just not that great, Paul said. Sam, who is a truck driver for Four City Technologies in Wellington but lives in Marblehead, said he drives about 400 miles a day to deliver bolts, nuts, and screws used in the auto industry. Since he became a Christian in the mid-1990s, he said hes used his moral compass to determine his vote. "If. Hes probably the best candidate out there for whats going on in our country right now, Martin said. Were offering a $250 bonus if someone can work 20 or more hours during their first four weeks of employment with us. They caused this, they brought it on because they dont like him, Fannin said. The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the 19 counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. The researchers also mapped all U.S. counties (over 3,000) by their bellwether scoretheir record of voting for the overall winner in each of the previous 10 presidential electionsgiving progressively larger weight to more recent elections. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. Our roads need to be fixed. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. Petr Svab is a reporter covering New York. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. Its gone, Jacobs said. Vigo County's most recent winning streak ended this year, as it did for nearly all the country's reliable bellwethers, most of them blue-collar, overwhelmingly white communities in the Rust Belt. Unbridled Evil: The Corrupt Reign of Jiang Zemin in China. Epoch Times Canada (@EpochTimesCan) November 16, 2020. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. Instead of guns and bullets, hes bringing our troops home, hes ending wars. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. They also found that high scoring counties do exhibit a geographic trend. As the 2022 mid-term elections near (May 3 in Ohio), one might think that the Republican and Democratic headquarters might be open and in full swing, but at both party offices the week of Feb. 21, the lights were out and no one was occupying the desks inside or answering the phones. One older woman with a Biden sign outside her home simply said, Im voting for Biden, and thats all Ive got to say.. For much of the last decade, historically Republican suburban areas in Franklin, Ohio,. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. The indirect evidence for election fraud rests on various statistical claims about the high level of improbability of certain features of the 2020 election. Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. Paul hopes that one day he can save enough money to buy himself a car, so he can drive to Florida and reunite with his family. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. The counties are also mostly small and rural. The roads are bad, the price of gas is high, its one thing after another. Wolf has allowed for the counting of ballots to continue for three days after Nov. 3, meaning its unlikely that a winner will be called in Pennsylvania for at least a week after the election. While declining to say which political party he supports or how he votes, he told The Epoch Times that he used to work at the Frickers in Findlay, which is south of Bowling Green, but transferred to his current location last year because of the high price of gas. Jim Hoft is the founder and editor of The Gateway Pundit, one of the top conservative news outlets in America. He voted for Trump in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and said hed vote for him again if he were the Republican nominee. Meanwhile, Miller and Zulch voiced their support for restarting the Keystone XL pipeline to help the United States return to energy independence and provide oil to European countries experiencing gas shortages and high prices. Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. Shortened URL for this post:https://bit.ly/3JzjZ3j. Half the people are just wearing rags on top of their face. Trump wasnt Tom TO Fitchs first choice in the 2016 primaryhe voted for Sen. Ted Cruz. Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. This includes personalizing content and advertising. The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. I believe in what they call entitlement programs, Hamilton said. Theres too much mishandling, she said. To accept cookies, click continue. This is a high farming community.. Theyve been dubbed bellwether counties and until this year, no president since at least Ronald Reagan has missed even one. Because the man made a lot of promises in 2016, and I think that he stood up and he kept every one of those promises that he could possibly keep, said Ron Fannin, 69, the local courthouse supervisor. It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. Its too big. Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. I just dont think hes capable of doing the job that its going to require of him.. They also found that high-scoring counties exhibit a geographic trend. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. 2016 Trump. Global Trade Policy Challenges: preparing for the next decade, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Unported. I think he is more for giving to the people.. What are they going to do about gun rights? he said. We have so many units that need to be repaired and we cant get the parts. In a 2020 article, Daniel Zimny-Schmitt and Michael Harris look for bellwether counties in the period 1980-2016 and identify nineteen such. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. He loves this country. Swept up in unproven voter fraud claims, the Shasta County Board of Supervisors has upended the county's election process, canceling its contract with . Plastic cups and straws also have been hard to come by because they require natural gas in their manufacturing process. That doesnt make sense to me, Tisdell said. On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. It swung from Barack Obama in 2012 to Donald Trump in 2016, and political science professor Matthew Bergbower says its something akin to a purple county.. Not as large or as well-known as its more eastern cousin, Luzerne County, where much of the election attention has been focused, Elk County is just as accurate in predicting who will be the next commander in chief. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. And the media is just taking it overboard., Shepherd said of Trump: I do know that he is not a selfish person. For Tisdell, the two major issues that weigh on his mind this year are the riots and the pandemic. Washington state's Clallam County was the outlier, backing Joe Biden in a state he won by more than 19 points. In Ridgway, Biden supporters were more difficult to find and more reluctant to talk than Trump supporters, but a few yard signs were dotted around. Now, being more than $3 a gallon, people are beginning to notice it more as its putting a pinch on their wallets. Its education level is a little lower25 percent have a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 33 percent nationally. Bernard Grofman is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Jack W. Peltason Chair of Democracy Studies at the University of California, Irvine.
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