"This looks like another reason for statesmanship in averting this possibility.". China had 55 small war ships in 2020, more than double the number it had five years ago. What would all the other countries in Asia, such as South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Indonesia do? Imaginary targets could quickly be replaced by real ones. One option to attack the man-made islands would be to send in teams of US Marine Raider commandos to destroy weapons systems. "There would also be a possibility of exceptionalism if most other countries in Asia did not get involved. Our economy would be paralysed as all trade with China and other major East Asian partners would stop dead and may not resume for a long time. Australia, however, was a strategic asset. "In a war involving Taiwan, US forces would be deployed over long distances from CONUS [Continental United States]. Spain is a notable exception, however, with 48% believing Russia to have the advantage currently, compared to 32% who feel neither side has the upper hand and 6% who think Ukraine is winning. "I cannot conceive that there are any benefits in Australia being at war with China unless the circumstances were so serious as to make the cost in lives and treasury worthwhile. Wherever they start, they finish only when one side decides to give up. Surrounded: Disturbing report from Ukraine. The US would be challenged by a powerful Chinese fleet in the region. That leaves its navy as its primary fighting force. The leaders of both Ukraine and Russia are expected to meet with China's president in the near future. Mr. Xi has championed Chinas political warfare capabilities as a magic weapon.. There are debates today about how reform of the UN is needed to deal with contemporary security challenges but not much progress has been made. He uses it in his new book, The Avoidable War: The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict Between the US and Xi Jinping's. Vietnam and Iraq were illegal wars, with the US Administration(s) lying to their citizens and their allies about the strategic necessity and the morality of the use of armed force. Despite its 1.9 million-strong army, compared to Taiwans cohort of 150,000, the task of taking its island neighbour and holding it is a mammoth military challenge. Hugh White, who is also Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, is clear in his analysis: "I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australia's support, could win a war with China over Taiwan." Provision of military hardware to Kyiv has depleted American stocks of some key military systems. "On the other hand, if the US decided to attack China the provocation becomes essential to decision making. "It would suffer high attrition and its military modernisation and even its one-party Communist rule would be threatened. "To the extent that China's strategy is informed by Sun Tzu, it would have a strong preference for a short, sharp war. The idea sounds grand charging forth, flags flying, to save a bullied island friend. The 100,000-strong Rocket Force was made a separate branch of the Peoples Liberation Army in 2015. Put bluntly, the repercussions of Australia joining the US in any war with China over the status of Taiwan or any other issue may have catastrophic consequences. It isn't Ukraine. And the protagonists are testing each others resolve on an almost daily basis. Modern aircraft particularly the F-35 stealth fighters in Australias arsenal need tender loving care. China produces more ships, steel and smartphones than any other country and is a world leader in the production of chemicals, metals, heavy industrial equipment and electronics the basic building blocks of a military-industrial economy. That means large paved airfields, humidity-controlled hangars and AI-enhanced maintenance equipment. So it would be an even match. Confronting as that would be, perhaps more confronting is something many people do not realise: such a decision would not require any consultation in parliament. But is Taiwans fate any of our business, as Beijing insists it isnt? The collapse of the League of Nations and the dreadful cost of war held hard lessons for how we had to manage international relationships better. For the US, the bigger the coalition of countries joining it in any war, the better. Beijings tactic of area denial already appears to have been effective. Allan Behm, who is now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10years, the best one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. But that would require strikes on Chinas mainland, with all the enormous risks of escalation that could portend. Russia's struggles in Ukraine are showing US special operators that they'll need to fight without their 'tethers' to win future wars. "Australia has been there before. The PLAs missile forces are central to Chinas efforts to deter and counter third-party intervention in a regional conflict, a US congressional report concluded this month. I draw here an important difference between politicians and statesmen. US-China war over Taiwan would be biggest since WWII, Australian expert says. A war with China over Taiwan, awful as that would be, involves no Australian national interests. Stavros Atlamazoglou. "For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan and other US allies and partners simultaneously.. And Beijings new navy has been in almost a constant string of live fire exercises for the past year. "Given the size of the Australia's forces and the logistic constraints on the US forces, a war against China would be a very hard war to fight. An embarrassed politician may suddenly feel compelled to enforce a vague red line. Hugh White,who is also Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, is clear in his analysis: I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australias support, could win a war with China over Taiwan.. by Robert Farley L Key Point: Escalation spirals are hard to. For a second day in a row Taiwan has reported a large-scale air force incursion, escalating tensions in the region. The high-altitude balloon that drifted across the United States this month was seen by many Americans as a shocking Chinese breach of U.S. sovereignty. "Along with military mobilisation China would need to prepare its citizens and economy for a protracted conflict. Let's take a look at who would . everything from electronics to furniture to shoes. Australia's oldest running coal-fired power station is about to close. China could also weaponize its dominance of supply chains and shipping. In 2004 U.S. manufacturing output was more than twice Chinas; in 2021, Chinas output was double that of the United States. The USs 1.38 million active personnel are better trained and equipped than many of their 1.9 million Chinese peers but getting them in place, and in time, to take on China would be a crucial task. Thinking of scale I am reminded that In 1944 the US alone out-produced the rest of the world combined in all war stores before the wars ended in 1945. Taiwan is within that zone: 180 nautical miles. "If they think the blockade is failing, they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted or they might escalate to attacking US forces supporting Taiwan. Such possibilities seem remote at present. Today, the analysis of Allan Behm, a former head of the International Policy and Strategy Divisions of the Defence Department and Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military, are investigated. And thats precisely the same vulnerability that saw obsolete battleships sent to the bottom so quickly during World War II. "Australia is never reluctant to support and participate in American adventurism. Now it is China. A separatist democracy against a legitimate government? "In its causation, [war with China] would be no different from any of the wars Australia has participated in since World War II. The bulk of these goods is transported aboard ships along sea lanes increasingly controlled by Chinese commercial interests that are ultimately answerable to Chinas party-state. For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct simultaneous high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan, and other US allies and partners. The most immediate fight, however, appears to be centred on Taiwan. From Taiwan, the PLA could also pivot south, effectively enveloping the Philippines and giving Beijing easier access to the resource-rich Benham Rise, Dr Davis writes. "Ultimately, I do not see how America could inflict enough damage on China to force Beijing to concede over Taiwan, without using nuclear weapons. Yet the war in Ukraine is relatively small-scale compared with the likely demands of a major war in the Indo-Pacific. Beijings response was prompt and predictable. Are bills set to rise? This is a statesman-like response to the challenges we are addressing today wherein the risk of war has grown since 2017, in my opinion. "As I see the decision for the invasion of Iraq I think it was made by the Prime Minister. Far fewer know their real story. The last time Chinese troops saw direct action was 1979 when China launched a costly month-long war against Vietnam to teach it a lesson in retaliation for Hanois actions in south-east Asia. This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. The People's Liberation Army is capable of "substantially subduing" the US Navy in the waters around China, a Communist Party-owned newspaper boasts. China also has more than 1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles poised to strike U.S. and allied forces in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and American-held territories in the Western Pacific. And that takes the issue of US-China military prowess back to the all-important issue of politics. Should a war break out around the South China Sea, the US would be under pressure to quickly neutralise the roughly 10 man-made islands China has created (seen as unsinkable aircraft carriers) to use as military bases. And that makes the kind of island-hopping campaign used by the US to take back the Pacific from Japan in World War II no longer feasible. It can deny the United States control of the air within 300 nautical miles (556km) from China's coast. China would have to launch an amphibious invasion, deploying troops along its beaches as the first step in a march towards the capital Taipei. The capital of China is Beijing. If war were to break out, China can be expected to use this to disrupt communications and spread fake news and other disinformation. Looking into the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe, and in the wider context NATO, is being drawn towards having to deal with an unacceptable risk of war. "At the time what I could see was the possibility that our intelligence had uncovered the spectre of WMD in Iraq. This article was originally published by Radio Free Asia and is reprinted with permission. Humans have become a predatory species. We acknowledge Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples as the First Australians and Traditional Custodians of the lands where we live, learn, and work. Washington and Beijing are locked in an intense strategic battle. "The mobilisation for all this would take many months and US intelligence would detect it and know in advance what was being planned. But the Chinese are prepared to wage a much broader type of warfare that would reach deep into American society. Were sorry, this feature is currently unavailable. "We have done work that shows that 'risk aversion'is the critical factor in avoiding war. "China's IADS includes an extensive early warning radar network, fighter aircraft, and a variety of surface to air missile (SAM) systems. Australians could wake up one morning to the news that we are at war with China. He believesa blockade of Taiwan by China is more likely than a cross-strait invasion. With that in mind, I sought the views of four of Australia's most experienced military strategists, with 100 years of high-level military and strategic experience between them,to discuss what joining the US in a war with China could mean for Australians. "If we joined the fight, or allowed US forces involved to operate from bases here, then there would be a clear chance that Australia would face direct attack from Chinese long-range forces. "But, in a large-scale war involving many hundreds of thousands of people in offensive and defensive operations, even before reaching the attendant prospect of reaching a nuclear war threshold, Australia is unlikely to make a substantial difference. While most members voted in favor of the six U.N. General Assembly resolutions passed since last . "Unlike the Taliban, China has an air force. A former US Army lieutenant colonel has warned of a possible "nuclear exchange" if the US breaks out into war with China. He believes Australia has a "fundamental strategic pathology to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own.". Today, Chinas military spending is the second-highest in the world after the United States and continues to rise. Critically, the United States is no longer able to outproduce China in advanced weapons and other supplies needed in a war, which the current one in Ukraine has made clear. Mr. Xi, who likes to say that the East is rising while the West is declining, evidently feels that Americas greatest weakness is on its home front. Admiral Chris Barriemakes the point that its possible the impact on Australia of any war with China could be greater than any other participant because of Australias low population. China might compound this with electronic and probably some physical attacks on satellites or related infrastructure. The only truly reliable way to counter the threat would be to attack the submarines in port when they refuel and rearm, he writes. But rhetoric about the international rules-based order and Chinas failure to sign up to all its provisions seems to be "lecturing and hectoring" rather than working assiduously on overcoming differences of perspective. To use the words of one leading military analyst, Australia could find itself "sleepwalking" into a war with China. Is Australia prepared to pay the price to defend its friend Taiwan from China? Such concerns must be overcome before any aid can be offered to our allies. It can impose costs on our forces. One real threat mistaken for a bluff. Our biggest customer is now also viewed as our biggest threat andChina's muscle-flexing around Taiwan last week only strengthened the view that a war involving Taiwan is a genuine possibility. Tensions between China and Taiwan have been escalating for years, with Beijing now sending fighter jets and nuclear-capable bombers into Taiwan's air defence zone on a near-daily basis. And doesnt have the necessary reach. This last outpost of pre-Communist China is an embarrassing thorn in Chairman Xi Jinpings paw. Despite decades of warnings, our fuel refineries continue to close. Credit:AP. The Peoples Liberation Army is capable of substantially subduing the US Navy in the waters around China, a Communist Party-owned newspaper boasts. He says that unlike the experience of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that affected only the members deployed into the conflict and their families, a war with China would have an impact on all Australians "economically, financially and personally it is likely to impoverish us all; it may even kill most of us if it goes nuclear". Were working to restore it. The only way we can possibly win such a war is to build a coalition similar to NATO. Of all the uncertainty and conflict in the world at moment, the repercussions of Australia joining the US in any war with China over the status of Taiwan or any other issue issurely one of the most important discussions we must have. No doubt Australian passions would run high. There are still hundreds of diplomats and politicians around the world including in Canberra working openly and behind the scenes to ensuretensions between China and the US never escalate into war. The size of the military mobilisation required to achieve this wouldinvolve calling up the reserves and activating the society at large, not just the military,well in advance of an invasion. Beyond out-producing the US Navy in the number of warships at a rate of four to one, the PLA Strategic Rocket Force has put US aircraft carriers at risk with the fielding of the DF-21D and DF-26 anti-carrier ballistic missiles, Mr Fanell said. "They're aggressively expanding their influence," he said. And, if a shooting war does break out, the US and its allies are not guaranteed a win. "In the past, when I was working in government, we sometimes offered ministers some indication of the possible cost in lives if things went badly in the kind of lower-level commitments that we made in the 1990s. China has demonstrated its capabilities already, including in Taiwan, where it has waged disinformation campaigns, and in serious hacking incidents in the United States.
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